Tuesday, 23 November 2010

War? Again? Still?

The Korean peninsula is yet again in a state of high tension. The two Korean nations are still formally at war since the Korean war and since then there has been numerous incidents, for example a South Korean ship was likely sunk by a North Korean torpedo. Now the North Korean army is firing grenades at the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong; several houses are burning, there have been several injuries, casualties are so far unknown. Yeonpyeong is located close to the disputed border between the nations. 

So where is all this going? Can we expect a full scale war?
Without underestimating the regime in Pyongyang, I think it is unlikely. I think there may be some skirmishes along the border and some possible retaliation. But mostly it will probably be handled on a diplomatic scale, and results will probably be limited. The North Korean army is large, but not most likely not as well equiped as the armies that would be facing them in a potential war. The USA and all western nations would be right behind South Korea in such a war, what is interesting is what stance China would take. Perhaps China could be a key player in calming the situation down. China is North Koreas largest trade partner by far and is giving the regime massive support, how long will the communist neighbours keep this up.

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