Failed states

 

The failed states index ranks states based on their inability to function as states (according to the indicators in the end of this post).This less than flattering list contains many of the usual suspects, states that you hear about in the news often in reference to corruption, (civil) war and lack of democracy. The bottom 20 contains: 12  African states, 4 in Western Asia and the Middle East, 3 in Eastern Asia and 1 in the Carribean. This gives yet another indication on the troubles on the African continent, and how much work still needs to be done to reduce poverty, increase democracy and reduce corruption.

Social indicators
1. Demographic pressures: including the pressures deriving from high population density relative to food supply and other life-sustaining resources.  

2. Massive movement of refugees and internally displaced peoples

3. Legacy of vengeance-seeking group grievance

4. Chronic and sustained human flight: both the "brain drain" of professionals, intellectuals and political dissidents and voluntary emigration of "the middle class".
Economic indicators
5. Uneven economic development between groups: measured by group-based poverty, unemployment, infant mortality, education levels.
6. Sharp and/or severe economic decline
Political indicators
7. Criminalization and/or delegitimisation of the state: corruption or profiteering by ruling elites and resistance to transparency, accountability and political representation.
8. Progressive deterioration of public services: a disappearance of basic state functions (such as health, education, sanitation, public transportation) that serve the people, including failure to protect citizens from terrorism and violence.
9. Widespread violation of human rights
10. Security apparatus as ‘state within a state’: emergence of elite guards that operate with impunity. Emergence of state-sponsored or state-supported private militias that terrorize political opponents, suspected "enemies," or civilians sympathetic to the opposition.
11. Rise of factionalised elites: a fragmentation of ruling elites and state institutions along group lines.
12. Intervention of other states or external factors: military or Para-military engagement in the internal affairs of the state at risk by outside armies, states, or entities that affect the internal balance.

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A tip

http://www.gapminder.org/

Gapminder is an organisation working with visual presentations of various data. I like the concept and the videos are quite educational.


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Distributed energy systems

In rural areas in developing countries there is today often a lack electricity. This could be solved in many ways and in the long run perhaps it is likely that there will be a mix of distributed and local energy systems. However, we are not there yet and electric grids are either severly lacking in coverage and quality or non-existent. Thus the other solution is to use small-scale distributed solutions, as many developing countries are in tropical areas the potential for photovoltaic solutions should be great.

Today photovoltaic cells suffer from two main problems, low efficiency and high costs. In the aforementioned context high costs is the main problem. Large research efforts are done in these areas and more cost efficient large-scale manufacturing of photovoltaic cells should be here soon. Bringing the generation of electricity closer to the end-user would bring large advantages from a technical point of view, but also when considering standard of living. Electricity in rural areas would bring better opportunities for schools and medical care. But also would help with another huge problems in these areas, clean water. The (cheap) electricity could be use for pumps and for cleaning water.


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Finite resources

Humanity is facing many challenges the coming century. To be the most definitive is not the threat of climate change our international terrorism. Something we cannot get around is how we use natural resources. If we keep consuming resources at a faster pace than they can be regenerated we are far out on very thin ice. Some obvious examples are oil and coal, but those could possibly be replaced by greener energy sources in the not too distant future. Furthermore, many metals we are using in large quantities are scarce. A sure sign of this is that the fast growing chinese economy is buying lots of rare metals and also is driving a lot of the global concrete and steel market. Firstly, we need to start reusing and recycling a lot more. What is
even scary is the large population in developing countries seeking a Western standard of life. Who are we to deny them that after raping the planet for a long time...

I guess that when one resources becoems to scarce or to expensive we will eventually move on to an alternative resource. But at some point there are no alternatives. We need to recycle and reuse. Further we need to use resources efficiently and minimise waste. Perhaps the a sustainable energy system is the key here, since we are really running out of oil and coal, not to mention the pollutions caused by those two.

Bottom line is, we cannot have a linear system for using finite natural resources. At some point we run out...

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Greenhouse

So far the global warming by an estimated 0,7 degrees Celsius has given effects to plant life on a global level. According to estimates the vegetation has increased with 6% between 1982 and 1999. This is expected as carbondioxide is one essential part of the photosyntesis process that is feeding plant growth.

As an effect it is expected that already dry areas will become drier in many cases, as well as the opposite many rainy countries will get wetter. And some countries will be even wetter due to rise in sea levels. Furthermore, the effects will have the largest negative impact tin development countries and the most positive effects in industrialised countries. Obviously third world countries will require help from richer and more developed countries. Not only in the form of money, but also in the form of a commitment to battling the cause of the problem, the emissions causing climate change.

[Climate Change] [Environment] [Sustainability] [Development] [Future]

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Misdirected punishment

As the climate changes due to global warming gradually comes; the wet areas will be wetter and dry areas will be drier. Many of the developing countries are located in areas that will become very dry or be flooded. This is problematic in several ways, except for the obvious impact on the everyday life of millions of people.

Morally, the global warming is almost exclusively caused by greenhouse gas emissions from the industrialized countries, the Western World. However, the most severe effects will affect the developing countries. In other words they will take the hit for our actions. Furthermore, can the Western World deny the developing countries to pollute as we have done. The people in developing countries are seeking a standard of living as we already have; for this to take place industrialization is needed and it will not come clean. China and India are there now. china has clearly indicated that it will not show any environmental concern while trying to catch up with the West.

Firstly, the Western world need to act as champions of change. Changes and adaptation needs to be done, to minimize climate change. This is important to show the rest of the world that there is a will, and also a way.

[Environment] [Climate Change] [China] [Moral] [Development]

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Free Trade & Market economy

Basically there are many problems with giving foreign aid. The foreign aid is often short-sighted and not creating sustainable improvements. There need to be a shift from shipping food to developing countries to a foreign aid for a long term improvement. I am not saying catastrophy aid is not needed; it is very much needed. But an economy cannot be built around foreign aid.

The first mission should be free trade. The most efficient way for developing countries to develop is by letting them trade their goods with the rest of the world, without traid barriers. This will create an increased prosperity and incentives for technological development. Furthermore, the industrialized world needs to stop dumping goods in developing countries, destroying the domestic market and companies.

When this is done, important steps towards market economy have been taken. But this need to be followed up by creating a transparent and reliable market. This is the responsibility of the local government, creating the prerequisites for this development. The market economy will drive economical and technological development, thus reinforcing itself.

With the increased prosperity brought by the market economy, an efficient educational system need to be created. This is creating a workforce suited for jobs in a knowledge intensive industry and incentives for multinational companies to establish operations here.

This will create a growing educated middle class, which most probably will create a demand for democracy and decreased corruption. These systems, market economy and democracy, are reinforcing themselves and each other by their existence and interaction.

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